Nakayachi, K. (中谷内一也) (2015).
Examining Public Trust in Risk-managing Organizations After a Major Disaster.
大災害後のリスク管理組織に対する信頼
Risk Analysis, 35(1), 57-67.
doi: 10.1111/risa.12243
This research investigates the public’s trust in risk-managing organizations after suffering serious damage from a major disaster. It is natural for public trust to decrease in organizations responsible for mitigating the damage. However, what about trust in organizations that address hazards not directly related to the disaster? Based on the results of surveys conducted by a national institute, the Japanese government concluded, in a White Paper on Science and Technology, that the public’s trust in scientists declined overall after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. Because scientists play a key role in risk assessment and risk management in most areas, one could predict that trust in risk-managing organizations overall would decrease after a major disaster. The methodology of that survey, however, had limitations that prevented such conclusions. For this research, two surveys were conducted to measure the public’s trust in risk-managing organizations regarding various hazards, before and after the Tohoku Earthquake (n = 1,192 in 2008 and n = 1,138 in 2012). The results showed that trust decreased in risk-managing organizations that deal with earthquakes and nuclear accidents, whereas trust levels related to many other hazards, especially in areas not touched by the Tohoku Earthquake, remained steady or even increased. These results reject the assertion that distrust rippled through all risk-managing organizations. The implications of this research are discussed, with the observation that this result is not necessarily gratifying for risk managers because high trust sometimes reduces public preparedness for disasters.
★概要★
東日本大震災後、科学技術に対する信頼が全般的に低下したといわれる。それが本当なら、たいていのリスク管理には科学技術の専門家が深く関わっているので、さまざまな領域においてリスク管理に対する信頼が低下しているはずである。そのような結果を予測させる知見もあるが、しかし、いくつかの理論は、地震と原発以外のハザードについてはむしろ信頼が高まることを予測する。日本全国をカバーする質問紙調査によってこの問題を実証的に検討した。結果は後者を支持するものであった。科学技術への信頼低下よりも、むしろ、地震・原発以外のリスク管理に関して根拠のない信頼を抱く方が問題なのではないかという議論を行った。